The monograph is devoted to a problem of production and sale of the concentrating and mountain equipment. The economic evaluation of production and sale is opened in the following sequence. The economic essence of the concept «insolvency» of the entity is stated. The reasons of risk of insolvency, its role in diagnostic approaches to solvency analysis of the entity, are called and analysed possibilities of a risk assessment of insolvency of the entity. By means of assessment of a condition the model of the analysis and a risk assessment of insolvency of the entity, an algorithm of its application in the analysis of machine-building enterprise is developed. Assessment of a condition of production and sale is carried out based on huge statistical material on influence of structure and structure of current assets on solvency of machinebuilding enterprise, liquidity of balance and assessment of liquidity and efficiency of cash flows for strengthening and optimization of activities. With use of integration of methods approbation of an analysis technique and a risk assessment of insolvency of machine-building enterprise is carried out and the possibilities of its optimization are considered. In an analysis result, assessment and developed offers the management concept is formulated by liquidity of machine-building enterprise and decrease in risk of insolvency, the principles of its forming and the mechanism of implementation are shown.
All the tools needed to perform a thorough risk assessment—whether you're working in insurance, forensics, engineering, or public safety Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment. Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, Risk Assessment details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. Examining not only the very nature of risks and consequences, with fascinating historical examples, the book progresses from simple to more complex risk assessment techniques used by the authors in their daily work, all presented in a form that can be readily adapted to any number of real-life situations: Ecological Risk Assessment Task Analysis Techniques Preliminary Hazards Analysis Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Human Reliability Analysis Critical Incident Technique With numerous industry-specific case studies, as well as additional case studies for risk assessments for a restaurant and a process plant, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations. Including downloadable worksheets and other useful assessment materials, as well as guidance on using PRA software, this unparalleled reference offers all the tools and techniques needed to conduct a thorough and accurate assessment of risk.
An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.
Risk Analysis, Second Edition Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis. Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis. This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process. Key features: Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization and related issues on risk assessments and their applications. Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than just computing probabilities Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples. Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both industrial and academic audiences. This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
The essential risk assessment guide for civil engineering, design, and construction Risk management allows construction professionals to identify the risks inherent in all projects, and to provide the tools for evaluating the probabilities and impacts to minimize the risk potential. This book introduces risk as a central pillar of project management and shows how a project manager can be prepared for dealing with uncertainty. Written by experts in the field, Risk Management for Design and Construction uses clear, straightforward terminology to demystify the concepts of project uncertainty and risk. Highlights include: Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis An introduction to a ready-to-use system of analyzing a project's risks and tools to proactively manage risks A methodology that was developed and used by the Washington State Department of Transportation Case studies and examples on the proper application of principles Information about combining value analysis with risk analysis «This book is a must for professionals who are seeking to move towards a proactive risk-centric management style. It is a valuable resource for students who are discovering the intricacies of uncertainties and risks within value estimation. For professionals, the book advocates for identifying and analyzing 'only' risks whose impact are of consequence to a project's performance.» —JOHN MILTON, PHD, PE Director of Enterprise Risk Management, Washington State Department of Transportation
Provides comprehensive coverage on recidivism risk/needs assessment tools Correctional and healthcare professionals around the world utilize structured instruments referred to as risk/needs assessment tools to predict the likelihood that an offender will recidivate. Such tools have been found to provide accurate and reliable evaluations and are widely used to assess, manage, and monitor offenders both institutionally as well as in the community. By identifying offenders in need of different levels of intervention, examining causal risk factors, and individualizing case management plans, risk/needs assessment tools have proven invaluable in addressing the public health issue of recidivism. Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools brings together the developers of the most commonly-used risk/needs assessment tools to provide a comprehensive overview of their development, peer-reviewed research literature, and practical application. Written by the leading professionals in the field of risk/needs assessment, the book provides chapters on: Recidivism Risk Assessment in the 21st Century; Performance of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments in Correctional Settings; Correctional Offender Management Profiles for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS); the Federal Post-Conviction Risk Assessment Instrument; the Inventory of Offender Risks, Needs, and Strengths (IORNS); the Level of Service (LS) Instruments; the Ohio Risk Assessment System (ORAS); the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ); the Service Planning Instrument (SPIn); the Static Risk Offender Needs Guide-Revised (STRONG-R); the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS); the Forensic Operationalized Therapy/Risk Evaluation System (FOTRES); the RisCanvi; and more. Systematically identifies currently-validated recidivism risk/needs assessment tools Reviews research on recidivism risk/needs assessment tools used internationally Each chapter presents sufficient detail to decide whether a given recidivism risk/needs assessment tool is right for your practice Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools is ideal for correctional, probation and parole, and behavioral health professionals.
We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.
We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.
This book integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • The first book that introduces the causes, processes and consequences of dam failures • Integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • Emphasizes integrating theory and practice to better demonstrate the application of risk assessment and decision methodologies to real cases • Intends to formulate dam-breaching emergency management steps in a scientific structure
Essential insights on the various aspects of enterprise risk management If you want to understand enterprise risk management from some of the leading academics and practitioners of this exciting new methodology, Enterprise Risk Management is the book for you. Through in-depth insights into what practitioners of this evolving business practice are actually doing as well as anticipating what needs to be taught on the topic, John Fraser and Betty Simkins have sought out the leading experts in this field to clearly explain what enterprise risk management is and how you can teach, learn, and implement these leading practices within the context of your business activities. In this book, the authors take a broad view of ERM, or what is called a holistic approach to ERM. Enterprise Risk Management introduces you to the wide range of concepts and techniques for managing risk in a holistic way that correctly identifies risks and prioritizes the appropriate responses. This invaluable guide offers a broad overview of the different types of techniques: the role of the board, risk tolerances, risk profiles, risk workshops, and allocation of resources, while focusing on the principles that determine business success. This comprehensive resource also provides a thorough introduction to enterprise risk management as it relates to credit, market, and operational risk, as well as the evolving requirements of the rating agencies and their importance to the overall risk management in a corporate setting. Filled with helpful tables and charts, Enterprise Risk Management offers a wealth of knowledge on the drivers, the techniques, the benefits, as well as the pitfalls to avoid, in successfully implementing enterprise risk management. Discusses the history of risk management and more recently developed enterprise risk management practices and how you can prudently implement these techniques within the context of your underlying business activities Provides coverage of topics such as the role of the chief risk officer, the use of anonymous voting technology, and risk indicators and their role in risk management Explores the culture and practices of enterprise risk management without getting bogged down by the mathematics surrounding the more conventional approaches to financial risk management This informative guide will help you unlock the incredible potential of enterprise risk management, which has been described as a proxy for good management.
This book is an essential guide and support to understanding of the science and policy, procedure and practice that underpins the REACH risk assessments required for the use and placing on the market of chemicals in the European Union. A clear understanding of information provision and how this affects the assessment of chemical safety is fundamentally important to the success of policy on chemicals and ultimately to the sustainability of the chemicals industry. Within the book, the scientific processes that underpin the policy are explained in a practical way. Importantly, it includes coverage of techniques to help solve the problems of using potentially risky and hazardous chemicals through the use of less hazardous alternatives and ‘green chemistry’, and also the analysis of the risks of the use of the most hazardous substances against the social and economic benefits of use. Chemical Risk Assessment: A Manual for REACH covers the following main themes: i) Assessment of chemical risk; ii) Risk management; iii) Hazard reduction, substitution and green chemistry; iv) Risk versus benefit – socio-economic analysis. The book acts as a practical guide and overview to chemicals risk assessment and risk management (in the EU context), as well as a support text for planning for the challenges of the future, which will see ever-increasing pressure to withdraw hazardous substances from the EU (and global) market, balanced against opportunities for innovation in the development of less hazardous chemicals.
Pollinators play a vital role in ecosystem health and are essential to ensuring food security. With declines in both managed and wild pollinator populations in recent years, scientists and regulators have sought answers to this problem and have explored implementing steps to protect pollinator populations now and for the future. Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators focuses on the role pesticides play in impacting bee populations and looks to develop a risk assessment process, along with the data to inform that process, to better assess the potential risks that can accompany the use of pesticide products. Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators opens with two chapters that provide a biological background of both Apis and non-Apis species of pollinators. Chapters then present an overview of the general regulatory risk assessment process and decision-making processes. The book then discusses the core elements of a risk assessment, including exposure estimation, laboratory testing, and field testing. The book concludes with chapters on statistical and modeling tools, and proposed additional research that may be useful in developing the ability to assess the impacts of pesticide use on pollinator populations. Summarizing the current state of the science surrounding risk assessment for Apis and non-Apis species, Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators is a timely work that will be of great use to the environmental science and agricultural research communities. Assesses pesticide risk to native and managed pollinators Summarizes the state of the science in toxicity testing and risk assessment Provides valuable biological overviews of both Apis and non-Apis pollinators Develops a plausible overall risk assessment framework for regulatory decision making Looks towards a globally harmonized approach for pollinator toxicity and risk assessment
ю в лысенко analysis technique and risk assessment of insolvency of machine building enterprise в наличии / купить интернет-магазине
Ю. В. Лысенко Analysis technique and risk assessment of insolvency of machine-building enterprise
The monograph is devoted to a problem of production and sale of the concentrating and mountain equipment. The economic evaluation of production and sale is opened in the following sequence. The economic essence of the concept «insolvency» of the entity is stated. The reasons of risk of insolvency, its role in diagnostic approaches to solvency analysis of the entity, are called and analysed possibilities of a risk assessment of insolvency of the entity. By means of assessment of a condition the model of the analysis and a risk assessment of insolvency of the entity, an algorithm of its application in the analysis of machine-building enterprise is developed. Assessment of a condition of production and sale is carried out based on huge statistical material on influence of structure and structure of current assets on solvency of machinebuilding enterprise, liquidity of balance and assessment of liquidity and efficiency of cash flows for strengthening and optimization of activities. With use of integration of methods approbation of an analysis technique and a risk assessment of insolvency of machine-building enterprise is carried out and the possibilities of its optimization are considered. In an analysis result, assessment and developed offers the management concept is formulated by liquidity of machine-building enterprise and decrease in risk of insolvency, the principles of its forming and the mechanism of implementation are shown.
Ostrom Lee T. Risk Assessment. Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications
All the tools needed to perform a thorough risk assessment—whether you're working in insurance, forensics, engineering, or public safety Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment. Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, Risk Assessment details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. Examining not only the very nature of risks and consequences, with fascinating historical examples, the book progresses from simple to more complex risk assessment techniques used by the authors in their daily work, all presented in a form that can be readily adapted to any number of real-life situations: Ecological Risk Assessment Task Analysis Techniques Preliminary Hazards Analysis Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Human Reliability Analysis Critical Incident Technique With numerous industry-specific case studies, as well as additional case studies for risk assessments for a restaurant and a process plant, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations. Including downloadable worksheets and other useful assessment materials, as well as guidance on using PRA software, this unparalleled reference offers all the tools and techniques needed to conduct a thorough and accurate assessment of risk.
Marvin Rausand Risk Assessment. Theory, Methods, and Applications
An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Andrew Sage P. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management
Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.
Terje Aven Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis, Second Edition Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway A practical guide to the varied challenges presented in the ever-growing field of risk analysis. Risk Analysis presents an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis, in a wide variety of field, with minimal prior knowledge required. Forming an ideal companion volume to Aven's previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis, it provides clear recommendations and guidance in the planning, execution anduse of risk analysis. This new edition presents recent developments related to risk conceptualization, focusing on related issues on risk assessment and their application. New examples are also featured to clarify the reader's understanding in the application of risk analysis and the risk analysis process. Key features: Fully updated to include recent developments related to risk conceptualization and related issues on risk assessments and their applications. Emphasizes the decision making context of risk analysis rather than just computing probabilities Demonstrates how to carry out predictive risk analysis using a variety of case studies and examples. Written by an experienced expert in the field, in a style suitable for both industrial and academic audiences. This book is ideal for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and physical sciences. Managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty will also benefit from this book.
Terje Aven Uncertainty in Risk Assessment. The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Terje Aven Foundations of Risk Analysis
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Ovidiu Cretu Risk Management for Design and Construction
The essential risk assessment guide for civil engineering, design, and construction Risk management allows construction professionals to identify the risks inherent in all projects, and to provide the tools for evaluating the probabilities and impacts to minimize the risk potential. This book introduces risk as a central pillar of project management and shows how a project manager can be prepared for dealing with uncertainty. Written by experts in the field, Risk Management for Design and Construction uses clear, straightforward terminology to demystify the concepts of project uncertainty and risk. Highlights include: Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis An introduction to a ready-to-use system of analyzing a project's risks and tools to proactively manage risks A methodology that was developed and used by the Washington State Department of Transportation Case studies and examples on the proper application of principles Information about combining value analysis with risk analysis «This book is a must for professionals who are seeking to move towards a proactive risk-centric management style. It is a valuable resource for students who are discovering the intricacies of uncertainties and risks within value estimation. For professionals, the book advocates for identifying and analyzing 'only' risks whose impact are of consequence to a project's performance.» —JOHN MILTON, PHD, PE Director of Enterprise Risk Management, Washington State Department of Transportation
Zachary Hamilton Handbook of Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools
Provides comprehensive coverage on recidivism risk/needs assessment tools Correctional and healthcare professionals around the world utilize structured instruments referred to as risk/needs assessment tools to predict the likelihood that an offender will recidivate. Such tools have been found to provide accurate and reliable evaluations and are widely used to assess, manage, and monitor offenders both institutionally as well as in the community. By identifying offenders in need of different levels of intervention, examining causal risk factors, and individualizing case management plans, risk/needs assessment tools have proven invaluable in addressing the public health issue of recidivism. Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools brings together the developers of the most commonly-used risk/needs assessment tools to provide a comprehensive overview of their development, peer-reviewed research literature, and practical application. Written by the leading professionals in the field of risk/needs assessment, the book provides chapters on: Recidivism Risk Assessment in the 21st Century; Performance of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments in Correctional Settings; Correctional Offender Management Profiles for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS); the Federal Post-Conviction Risk Assessment Instrument; the Inventory of Offender Risks, Needs, and Strengths (IORNS); the Level of Service (LS) Instruments; the Ohio Risk Assessment System (ORAS); the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ); the Service Planning Instrument (SPIn); the Static Risk Offender Needs Guide-Revised (STRONG-R); the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS); the Forensic Operationalized Therapy/Risk Evaluation System (FOTRES); the RisCanvi; and more. Systematically identifies currently-validated recidivism risk/needs assessment tools Reviews research on recidivism risk/needs assessment tools used internationally Each chapter presents sufficient detail to decide whether a given recidivism risk/needs assessment tool is right for your practice Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools is ideal for correctional, probation and parole, and behavioral health professionals.
Terje Aven Misconceptions of Risk
We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.
Terje Aven Misconceptions of Risk
We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.
Limin Zhang Dam Failure Mechanisms and Risk Assessment
This book integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • The first book that introduces the causes, processes and consequences of dam failures • Integrates the physical processes of dam breaching and the mathematical aspects of risk assessment in a concise manner • Emphasizes integrating theory and practice to better demonstrate the application of risk assessment and decision methodologies to real cases • Intends to formulate dam-breaching emergency management steps in a scientific structure
John Fraser Enterprise Risk Management. Today's Leading Research and Best Practices for Tomorrow's Executives
Essential insights on the various aspects of enterprise risk management If you want to understand enterprise risk management from some of the leading academics and practitioners of this exciting new methodology, Enterprise Risk Management is the book for you. Through in-depth insights into what practitioners of this evolving business practice are actually doing as well as anticipating what needs to be taught on the topic, John Fraser and Betty Simkins have sought out the leading experts in this field to clearly explain what enterprise risk management is and how you can teach, learn, and implement these leading practices within the context of your business activities. In this book, the authors take a broad view of ERM, or what is called a holistic approach to ERM. Enterprise Risk Management introduces you to the wide range of concepts and techniques for managing risk in a holistic way that correctly identifies risks and prioritizes the appropriate responses. This invaluable guide offers a broad overview of the different types of techniques: the role of the board, risk tolerances, risk profiles, risk workshops, and allocation of resources, while focusing on the principles that determine business success. This comprehensive resource also provides a thorough introduction to enterprise risk management as it relates to credit, market, and operational risk, as well as the evolving requirements of the rating agencies and their importance to the overall risk management in a corporate setting. Filled with helpful tables and charts, Enterprise Risk Management offers a wealth of knowledge on the drivers, the techniques, the benefits, as well as the pitfalls to avoid, in successfully implementing enterprise risk management. Discusses the history of risk management and more recently developed enterprise risk management practices and how you can prudently implement these techniques within the context of your underlying business activities Provides coverage of topics such as the role of the chief risk officer, the use of anonymous voting technology, and risk indicators and their role in risk management Explores the culture and practices of enterprise risk management without getting bogged down by the mathematics surrounding the more conventional approaches to financial risk management This informative guide will help you unlock the incredible potential of enterprise risk management, which has been described as a proxy for good management.
Peter Fisk Chemical Risk Assessment. A Manual for REACH
This book is an essential guide and support to understanding of the science and policy, procedure and practice that underpins the REACH risk assessments required for the use and placing on the market of chemicals in the European Union. A clear understanding of information provision and how this affects the assessment of chemical safety is fundamentally important to the success of policy on chemicals and ultimately to the sustainability of the chemicals industry. Within the book, the scientific processes that underpin the policy are explained in a practical way. Importantly, it includes coverage of techniques to help solve the problems of using potentially risky and hazardous chemicals through the use of less hazardous alternatives and ‘green chemistry’, and also the analysis of the risks of the use of the most hazardous substances against the social and economic benefits of use. Chemical Risk Assessment: A Manual for REACH covers the following main themes: i) Assessment of chemical risk; ii) Risk management; iii) Hazard reduction, substitution and green chemistry; iv) Risk versus benefit – socio-economic analysis. The book acts as a practical guide and overview to chemicals risk assessment and risk management (in the EU context), as well as a support text for planning for the challenges of the future, which will see ever-increasing pressure to withdraw hazardous substances from the EU (and global) market, balanced against opportunities for innovation in the development of less hazardous chemicals.
David Fischer Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators
Pollinators play a vital role in ecosystem health and are essential to ensuring food security. With declines in both managed and wild pollinator populations in recent years, scientists and regulators have sought answers to this problem and have explored implementing steps to protect pollinator populations now and for the future. Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators focuses on the role pesticides play in impacting bee populations and looks to develop a risk assessment process, along with the data to inform that process, to better assess the potential risks that can accompany the use of pesticide products. Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators opens with two chapters that provide a biological background of both Apis and non-Apis species of pollinators. Chapters then present an overview of the general regulatory risk assessment process and decision-making processes. The book then discusses the core elements of a risk assessment, including exposure estimation, laboratory testing, and field testing. The book concludes with chapters on statistical and modeling tools, and proposed additional research that may be useful in developing the ability to assess the impacts of pesticide use on pollinator populations. Summarizing the current state of the science surrounding risk assessment for Apis and non-Apis species, Pesticide Risk Assessment for Pollinators is a timely work that will be of great use to the environmental science and agricultural research communities. Assesses pesticide risk to native and managed pollinators Summarizes the state of the science in toxicity testing and risk assessment Provides valuable biological overviews of both Apis and non-Apis pollinators Develops a plausible overall risk assessment framework for regulatory decision making Looks towards a globally harmonized approach for pollinator toxicity and risk assessment