Regression Methods for Medical Research provides medical researchers with the skills they need to critically read and interpret research using more advanced statistical methods. The statistical requirements of interpreting and publishing in medical journals, together with rapid changes in science and technology, increasingly demands an understanding of more complex and sophisticated analytic procedures. The text explains the application of statistical models to a wide variety of practical medical investigative studies and clinical trials. Regression methods are used to appropriately answer the key design questions posed and in so doing take due account of any effects of potentially influencing co-variables. It begins with a revision of basic statistical concepts, followed by a gentle introduction to the principles of statistical modelling. The various methods of modelling are covered in a non-technical manner so that the principles can be more easily applied in everyday practice. A chapter contrasting regression modelling with a regression tree approach is included. The emphasis is on the understanding and the application of concepts and methods. Data drawn from published studies are used to exemplify statistical concepts throughout. Regression Methods for Medical Research is especially designed for clinicians, public health and environmental health professionals, para-medical research professionals, scientists, laboratory-based researchers and students.
A new, more accurate take on the classical approach to volatility evaluation Inside Volatility Filtering presents a new approach to volatility estimation, using financial econometrics based on a more accurate estimation of the hidden state. Based on the idea of «filtering», this book lays out a two-step framework involving a Chapman-Kolmogorov prior distribution followed by Bayesian posterior distribution to develop a robust estimation based on all available information. This new second edition includes guidance toward basing estimations on historic option prices instead of stocks, as well as Wiener Chaos Expansions and other spectral approaches. The author's statistical trading strategy has been expanded with more in-depth discussion, and the companion website offers new topical insight, additional models, and extra charts that delve into the profitability of applied model calibration. You'll find a more precise approach to the classical time series and financial econometrics evaluation, with expert advice on turning data into profit. Financial markets do not always behave according to a normal bell curve. Skewness creates uncertainty and surprises, and tarnishes trading performance, but it's not going away. This book shows traders how to work with skewness: how to predict it, estimate its impact, and determine whether the data is presenting a warning to stay away or an opportunity for profit. Base volatility estimations on more accurate data Integrate past observation with Bayesian probability Exploit posterior distribution of the hidden state for optimal estimation Boost trade profitability by utilizing «skewness» opportunities Wall Street is constantly searching for volatility assessment methods that will make their models more accurate, but precise handling of skewness is the key to true accuracy. Inside Volatility Filtering shows you a better way to approach non-normal distributions for more accurate volatility estimation.
Popular guide to options pricing and position sizing for quant traders In this second edition of this bestselling book, Sinclair offers a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach, he guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. This new edition includes new chapters on the dynamics of realized and implied volatilities, trading the variance premium and using options to trade special situations in equity markets. Filled with volatility models including brand new option trades for quant traders Options trader Euan Sinclair specializes in the design and implementation of quantitative trading strategies Volatility Trading, Second Edition + Website outlines strategies for defining a true edge in the market using options to trade volatility profitably.
Today?s traders want to know when volatility is a sign that the sky is falling (and they should stay out of the market), and when it is a sign of a possible trading opportunity. Inside Volatility Arbitrage can help them do this. Author and financial expert Alireza Javaheri uses the classic approach to evaluating volatility – time series and financial econometrics – in a way that he believes is superior to methods presently used by market participants. He also suggests that there may be «skewness» trading opportunities that can be used to trade the markets more profitably. Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, Inside Volatility Arbitrage will help traders discover when «skewness» may present valuable trading opportunities as well as why it can be so profitable.
Stochastic processes are widely used for model building in the social, physical, engineering and life sciences as well as in financial economics. In model building, statistical inference for stochastic processes is of great importance from both a theoretical and an applications point of view. This book deals with Fractional Diffusion Processes and statistical inference for such stochastic processes. The main focus of the book is to consider parametric and nonparametric inference problems for fractional diffusion processes when a complete path of the process over a finite interval is observable. Key features: Introduces self-similar processes, fractional Brownian motion and stochastic integration with respect to fractional Brownian motion. Provides a comprehensive review of statistical inference for processes driven by fractional Brownian motion for modelling long range dependence. Presents a study of parametric and nonparametric inference problems for the fractional diffusion process. Discusses the fractional Brownian sheet and infinite dimensional fractional Brownian motion. Includes recent results and developments in the area of statistical inference of fractional diffusion processes. Researchers and students working on the statistics of fractional diffusion processes and applied mathematicians and statisticians involved in stochastic process modelling will benefit from this book.
Mathematical problems such as graph theory problems are of increasing importance for the analysis of modelling data in biomedical research such as in systems biology, neuronal network modelling etc. This book follows a new approach of including graph theory from a mathematical perspective with specific applications of graph theory in biomedical and computational sciences. The book is written by renowned experts in the field and offers valuable background information for a wide audience.
This undergraduate textbook provides a statistical mechanical foundation to the classical laws of thermodynamics via a comprehensive treatment of the basics of classical thermodynamics, equilibrium statistical mechanics, irreversible thermodynamics, and the statistical mechanics of non-equilibrium phenomena. This timely book has a unique focus on the concept of entropy, which is studied starting from the well-known ideal gas law, employing various thermodynamic processes, example systems and interpretations to expose its role in the second law of thermodynamics. This modern treatment of statistical physics includes studies of neutron stars, superconductivity and the recently developed fluctuation theorems. It also presents figures and problems in a clear and concise way, aiding the student’s understanding.
In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
A unique, in-depth guide to options pricing and valuing their greeks, along with a four dimensional approach towards the impact of changing market circumstances on options How to Calculate Options Prices and Their Greeks is the only book of its kind, showing you how to value options and the greeks according to the Black Scholes model but also how to do this without consulting a model. You'll build a solid understanding of options and hedging strategies as you explore the concepts of probability, volatility, and put call parity, then move into more advanced topics in combination with a four-dimensional approach of the change of the P&L of an option portfolio in relation to strike, underlying, volatility, and time to maturity. This informative guide fully explains the distribution of first and second order Greeks along the whole range wherein an option has optionality, and delves into trading strategies, including spreads, straddles, strangles, butterflies, kurtosis, vega-convexity , and more. Charts and tables illustrate how specific positions in a Greek evolve in relation to its parameters, and digital ancillaries allow you to see 3D representations using your own parameters and volumes. The Black and Scholes model is the most widely used option model, appreciated for its simplicity and ability to generate a fair value for options pricing in all kinds of markets. This book shows you the ins and outs of the model, giving you the practical understanding you need for setting up and managing an option strategy. • Understand the Greeks, and how they make or break a strategy • See how the Greeks change with time, volatility, and underlying • Explore various trading strategies • Implement options positions, and more Representations of option payoffs are too often based on a simple two-dimensional approach consisting of P&L versus underlying at expiry. This is misleading, as the Greeks can make a world of difference over the lifetime of a strategy. How to Calculate Options Prices and Their Greeks is a comprehensive, in-depth guide to a thorough and more effective understanding of options, their Greeks, and (hedging) option strategies.
Mixed modelling is very useful, and easier than you think! Mixed modelling is now well established as a powerful approach to statistical data analysis. It is based on the recognition of random-effect terms in statistical models, leading to inferences and estimates that have much wider applicability and are more realistic than those otherwise obtained. Introduction to Mixed Modelling leads the reader into mixed modelling as a natural extension of two more familiar methods, regression analysis and analysis of variance. It provides practical guidance combined with a clear explanation of the underlying concepts. Like the first edition, this new edition shows diverse applications of mixed models, provides guidance on the identification of random-effect terms, and explains how to obtain and interpret best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs). It also introduces several important new topics, including the following: Use of the software SAS, in addition to GenStat and R. Meta-analysis and the multiple testing problem. The Bayesian interpretation of mixed models. Including numerous practical exercises with solutions, this book provides an ideal introduction to mixed modelling for final year undergraduate students, postgraduate students and professional researchers. It will appeal to readers from a wide range of scientific disciplines including statistics, biology, bioinformatics, medicine, agriculture, engineering, economics, archaeology and geography. Praise for the first edition: “One of the main strengths of the text is the bridge it provides between traditional analysis of variance and regression models and the more recently developed class of mixed models…Each chapter is well-motivated by at least one carefully chosen example…demonstrating the broad applicability of mixed models in many different disciplines…most readers will likely learn something new, and those previously unfamiliar with mixed models will obtain a solid foundation on this topic.”—Kerrie Nelson University of South Carolina, in American Statistician, 2007
Provides the necessary skills to solve problems in mathematical statistics through theory, concrete examples, and exercises With a clear and detailed approach to the fundamentals of statistical theory, Examples and Problems in Mathematical Statistics uniquely bridges the gap between theory andapplication and presents numerous problem-solving examples that illustrate the relatednotations and proven results. Written by an established authority in probability and mathematical statistics, each chapter begins with a theoretical presentation to introduce both the topic and the important results in an effort to aid in overall comprehension. Examples are then provided, followed by problems, and finally, solutions to some of the earlier problems. In addition, Examples and Problems in Mathematical Statistics features: Over 160 practical and interesting real-world examples from a variety of fields including engineering, mathematics, and statistics to help readers become proficient in theoretical problem solving More than 430 unique exercises with select solutions Key statistical inference topics, such as probability theory, statistical distributions, sufficient statistics, information in samples, testing statistical hypotheses, statistical estimation, confidence and tolerance intervals, large sample theory, and Bayesian analysis Recommended for graduate-level courses in probability and statistical inference, Examples and Problems in Mathematical Statistics is also an ideal reference for applied statisticians and researchers.
The complete guide to the principles and practice of risk quantification for business applications. The assessment and quantification of risk provide an indispensable part of robust decision-making; to be effective, many professionals need a firm grasp of both the fundamental concepts and of the tools of the trade. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in–depth, and practical guide that aims to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. Key content areas include: Detailed descriptions of risk assessment processes, their objectives and uses, possible approaches to risk quantification, and their associated decision-benefits and organisational challenges. Principles and techniques in the design of risk models, including the similarities and differences with traditional financial models, and the enhancements that risk modelling can provide. In depth coverage of the principles and concepts in simulation methods, the statistical measurement of risk, the use and selection of probability distributions, the creation of dependency relationships, the alignment of risk modelling activities with general risk assessment processes, and a range of Excel modelling techniques. The implementation of simulation techniques using both Excel/VBA macros and the @RISK Excel add-in. Each platform may be appropriate depending on the context, whereas the core modelling concepts and risk assessment contexts are largely the same in each case. Some additional features and key benefits of using @RISK are also covered. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice reflects the author′s many years in training and consultancy in these areas. It provides clear and complete guidance, enhanced with an expert perspective. It uses approximately one hundred practical and real-life models to demonstrate all key concepts and techniques; these are accessible on the companion website.
A comprehensive introduction to sampling-based methods in statistical computing The use of computers in mathematics and statistics has opened up a wide range of techniques for studying otherwise intractable problems. Sampling-based simulation techniques are now an invaluable tool for exploring statistical models. This book gives a comprehensive introduction to the exciting area of sampling-based methods. An Introduction to Statistical Computing introduces the classical topics of random number generation and Monte Carlo methods. It also includes some advanced methods such as the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and modern methods such as approximate Bayesian computation and multilevel Monte Carlo techniques An Introduction to Statistical Computing: Fully covers the traditional topics of statistical computing. Discusses both practical aspects and the theoretical background. Includes a chapter about continuous-time models. Illustrates all methods using examples and exercises. Provides answers to the exercises (using the statistical computing environment R); the corresponding source code is available online. Includes an introduction to programming in R. This book is mostly self-contained; the only prerequisites are basic knowledge of probability up to the law of large numbers. Careful presentation and examples make this book accessible to a wide range of students and suitable for self-study or as the basis of a taught course
Wall turbulence is encountered in many technological applications as well as in the atmosphere, and a detailed understanding leading to its management would have considerable beneficial consequences in many areas. A lot of inspired work by experimenters, theoreticians, engineers and mathematicians has been accomplished over recent decades on this important topic and Statistical Approach to Wall Turbulence provides an updated and integrated view on the progress made in this area. Wall turbulence is a complex phenomenon that has several industrial applications, such as in aerodynamics, turbomachinery, geophysical flows, internal engines, etc. Several books exist on fluid turbulence, but Statistical Approach to Wall Turbulence is original in the sense that it focuses solely on the turbulent flows bounded by solid boundaries. The book covers the different physical aspects of wall turbulence, beginning with classical phenomenological aspects before advancing to recent research in the effects of the Reynolds numbers, near wall coherent structures, and wall turbulent transport process. This book would be of interest to postgraduate and undergraduate students in mechanical, chemical, and aerospace engineering, as well as researchers in aerodynamics, combustion, and all applications of wall turbulence.
A comprehensive guide to statistical hypothesis testing with examples in SAS and R When analyzing datasets the following questions often arise: Is there a short hand procedure for a statistical test available in SAS or R? If so, how do I use it? If not, how do I program the test myself? This book answers these questions and provides an overview of the most common statistical test problems in a comprehensive way, making it easy to find and perform an appropriate statistical test. A general summary of statistical test theory is presented, along with a basic description for each test, including the necessary prerequisites, assumptions, the formal test problem and the test statistic. Examples in both SAS and R are provided, along with program code to perform the test, resulting output and remarks explaining the necessary program parameters. Key features: • Provides examples in both SAS and R for each test presented. • Looks at the most common statistical tests, displayed in a clear and easy to follow way. • Supported by a supplementary website http://www.d-taeger.de featuring example program code. Academics, practitioners and SAS and R programmers will find this book a valuable resource. Students using SAS and R will also find it an excellent choice for reference and data analysis.