A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.
Never before has risk management been so important. Now in its third edition, this seminal work by Joël Bessis has been comprehensively revised and updated to take into account the changing face of risk management. Fully restructured, featuring new material and discussions on new financial products, derivatives, Basel II, credit models based on time intensity models, implementing risk systems and intensity models of default, it also includes a section on Subprime that discusses the crisis mechanisms and makes numerous references throughout to the recent stressed financial conditions. The book postulates that risk management practices and techniques remain of major importance, if implemented in a sound economic way with proper governance. Risk Management in Banking, Third Edition considers all aspects of risk management emphasizing the need to understand conceptual and implementation issues of risk management and examining the latest techniques and practical issues, including: Asset-Liability Management Risk regulations and accounting standards Market risk models Credit risk models Dependencies modeling Credit portfolio models Capital Allocation Risk-adjusted performance Credit portfolio management Building on the considerable success of this classic work, the third edition is an indispensable text for MBA students, practitioners in banking and financial services, bank regulators and auditors alike.
The value-at-risk measurement methodology is a widely-used tool in financial market risk management. The fifth edition of Professor Moorad Choudhry’s benchmark reference text An Introduction to Value-at-Risk offers an accessible and reader-friendly look at the concept of VaR and its different estimation methods, and is aimed specifically at newcomers to the market or those unfamiliar with modern risk management practices. The author capitalises on his experience in the financial markets to present this concise yet in-depth coverage of VaR, set in the context of risk management as a whole. Topics covered include: Defining value-at-risk Variance-covariance methodology Portfolio VaR Credit risk and credit VaR Stressed VaR Critique and VaR during crisis Topics are illustrated with Bloomberg screens, worked examples and exercises. Related issues such as statistics, volatility and correlation are also introduced as necessary background for students and practitioners. This is essential reading for all those who require an introduction to financial market risk management and risk measurement techniques. Foreword by Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance, University of Sussex.
Financial risk has become a focus of financial and nonfinancial firms, individuals, and policy makers. But the study of risk remains a relatively new discipline in finance and continues to be refined. The financial market crisis that began in 2007 has highlighted the challenges of managing financial risk. Now, in Financial Risk Management, author Allan Malz addresses the essential issues surrounding this discipline, sharing his extensive career experiences as a risk researcher, risk manager, and central banker. The book includes standard risk measurement models as well as alternative models that address options, structured credit risks, and the real-world complexities or risk modeling, and provides the institutional and historical background on financial innovation, liquidity, leverage, and financial crises that is crucial to practitioners and students of finance for understanding the world today. Financial Risk Management is equally suitable for firm risk managers, economists, and policy makers seeking grounding in the subject. This timely guide skillfully surveys the landscape of financial risk and the financial developments of recent decades that culminated in the crisis. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the different types of financial risk we face, as well as the techniques used to measure and manage them. Topics covered include: Market risk, from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to risk models for options Credit risk, from portfolio credit risk to structured credit products Model risk and validation Risk capital and stress testing Liquidity risk, leverage, systemic risk, and the forms they take Financial crises, historical and current, their causes and characteristics Financial regulation and its evolution in the wake of the global crisis And much more Combining the more model-oriented approach of risk management-as it has evolved over the past two decades-with an economist's approach to the same issues, Financial Risk Management is the essential guide to the subject for today's complex world.
The long-awaited, comprehensive guide to practical credit risk modeling Credit Risk Analytics provides a targeted training guide for risk managers looking to efficiently build or validate in-house models for credit risk management. Combining theory with practice, this book walks you through the fundamentals of credit risk management and shows you how to implement these concepts using the SAS credit risk management program, with helpful code provided. Coverage includes data analysis and preprocessing, credit scoring; PD and LGD estimation and forecasting, low default portfolios, correlation modeling and estimation, validation, implementation of prudential regulation, stress testing of existing modeling concepts, and more, to provide a one-stop tutorial and reference for credit risk analytics. The companion website offers examples of both real and simulated credit portfolio data to help you more easily implement the concepts discussed, and the expert author team provides practical insight on this real-world intersection of finance, statistics, and analytics. SAS is the preferred software for credit risk modeling due to its functionality and ability to process large amounts of data. This book shows you how to exploit the capabilities of this high-powered package to create clean, accurate credit risk management models. Understand the general concepts of credit risk management Validate and stress-test existing models Access working examples based on both real and simulated data Learn useful code for implementing and validating models in SAS Despite the high demand for in-house models, there is little comprehensive training available; practitioners are left to comb through piece-meal resources, executive training courses, and consultancies to cobble together the information they need. This book ends the search by providing a comprehensive, focused resource backed by expert guidance. Credit Risk Analytics is the reference every risk manager needs to streamline the modeling process.
Practical tools and advice for managing financial risk, updated for a post-crisis world Advanced Financial Risk Management bridges the gap between the idealized assumptions used for risk valuation and the realities that must be reflected in management actions. It explains, in detailed yet easy-to-understand terms, the analytics of these issues from A to Z, and lays out a comprehensive strategy for risk management measurement, objectives, and hedging techniques that apply to all types of institutions. Written by experienced risk managers, the book covers everything from the basics of present value, forward rates, and interest rate compounding to the wide variety of alternative term structure models. Revised and updated with lessons from the 2007-2010 financial crisis, Advanced Financial Risk Management outlines a framework for fully integrated risk management. Credit risk, market risk, asset and liability management, and performance measurement have historically been thought of as separate disciplines, but recent developments in financial theory and computer science now allow these views of risk to be analyzed on a more integrated basis. The book presents a performance measurement approach that goes far beyond traditional capital allocation techniques to measure risk-adjusted shareholder value creation, and supplements this strategic view of integrated risk with step-by-step tools and techniques for constructing a risk management system that achieves these objectives. Practical tools for managing risk in the financial world Updated to include the most recent events that have influenced risk management Topics covered include the basics of present value, forward rates, and interest rate compounding; American vs. European fixed income options; default probability models; prepayment models; mortality models; and alternatives to the Vasicek model Comprehensive and in-depth, Advanced Financial Risk Management is an essential resource for anyone working in the financial field.
An easy to implement, practical, and proven risk management methodology for project managers and decision makers Drawing from the author's work with several major and mega capital projects for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, TransAlta, Access Pipeline, MEG Energy, and SNC-Lavalin, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers reveals how to implement a consistent application of risk methods, including probabilistic methods. It is based on proven training materials, models, and tools developed by the author to make risk management plans accessible and easily implemented. Written by an experienced risk management professional Reveals essential risk management methods for project teams and decision makers Packed with training materials, models, and tools for project management professionals Risk Management has been identified as one of the nine content areas for Project Management Professional (PMP®) certification. Yet, it remains an area that can get bogged down in the real world of project management. Practical and clearly written, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers equips project managers and decision makers with a practical understanding of the basics of risk management as they apply to project management. (PMP and Project Management Professional are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.)
A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.
Balanced, practical risk management for post – financial crisis institutions Fundamentals of Risk Management fills a critical gap left by existing risk management texts. Instead of focusing only on quantitative risk analysis or only on institutional risk management, this book takes a comprehensive approach. The disasters of the recent financial crisis taught us that managing risk is both an art and a science, and it is critical for practitioners to understand how individual risks are integrated at the enterprise level. This book is the only resource of its kind to introduce all of the key risk management concepts in a cohesive case study spanning each chapter. A hypothetical bank drawn from elements of several real world institutions serves as a backdrop for topics from credit risk and operational risk to understanding big-picture risk exposure. You will be able to see exactly how each rigorous concept is applied in actual risk management contexts. Fundamentals of Risk Management includes: Supplemental Excel-based Visual Basic (VBA) modules, so you can interact directly with risk models Clear explanations of the importance of risk management in preventing financial disasters Real world examples and lessons learned from past crises Risk policies, infrastructure, and activities that balance limited quantitative models This book provides the element of hands-on application necessary to put enterprise risk management into effective practice. The very best risk managers rely on a balanced approach that leverages every aspect of financial operations for an integrative risk management strategy. With Fundamentals of Risk Management, you can identify and control risk at an expert level.
Book DescriptionIn this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, andGIE is described too.
Everything you need to know in order to manage risk effectively within your organization You cannot afford to ignore the explosion in mathematical finance in your quest to remain competitive. This exciting branch of mathematics has very direct practical implications: when a new model is tested and implemented it can have an immediate impact on the financial environment. With risk management top of the agenda for many organizations, this book is essential reading for getting to grips with the mathematical story behind the subject of financial risk management. It will take you on a journey—from the early ideas of risk quantification up to today's sophisticated models and approaches to business risk management. To help you investigate the most up-to-date, pioneering developments in modern risk management, the book presents statistical theories and shows you how to put statistical tools into action to investigate areas such as the design of mathematical models for financial volatility or calculating the value at risk for an investment portfolio. Respected academic author Simon Hubbert is the youngest director of a financial engineering program in the U.K. He brings his industry experience to his practical approach to risk analysis Captures the essential mathematical tools needed to explore many common risk management problems Website with model simulations and source code enables you to put models of risk management into practice Plunges into the world of high-risk finance and examines the crucial relationship between the risk and the potential reward of holding a portfolio of risky financial assets This book is your one-stop-shop for effective risk management.
Effective risk management in today’s ever-changing world Crisis Wasted? Leading Risk Managers on Risk Culture sheds light on today’s risk management landscape through a unique collection of interviews from risk leaders in both the banking and investment industries. These interviews zero in on the risk culture of organisations, effective risk management in practice, and the sometimes paradoxical effects of new regulations and how they affect decision-making in financial organisations They offer genuine insight into regulatory processes and priorities and their implications for the stability of the global financial system. As trending topics in the risk management field, each of these subject areas is relevant to the work of today’s risk management professionals. In addition to the forward-focused text, this reference provides access to a wealth of premium online content. Risk management has become an area of focus for companies since the financial crises that shook the international community over the past decade, but, despite high levels of introspection and changes to key processes, many financial houses are still experiencing large losses. Understanding today’s risk environment can help you improve risk management tactics. Access essential information both in print and online Discover the most important topics in today’s risk management field Explore interviews with 1 risk management leaders Learn about ground-breaking recent innovations in risk management thinking Crisis Wasted? Leading Risk Managers on Risk Culture is an integral resource for professionals responsible for minimising organisational risk, as well as those who want to better understand the risk culture of today’s world.
Models and methods for operational risks assessment and mitigation are gaining importance in financial institutions, healthcare organizations, industry, businesses and organisations in general. This book introduces modern Operational Risk Management and describes how various data sources of different types, both numeric and semantic sources such as text can be integrated and analyzed. The book also demonstrates how Operational Risk Management is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Safety Management. Operational Risk Management: a practical approach to intelligent data analysis provides practical and tested methodologies for combining structured and unstructured, semantic-based data, and numeric data, in Operational Risk Management (OpR) data analysis. Key Features: The book is presented in four parts: 1) Introduction to OpR Management, 2) Data for OpR Management, 3) OpR Analytics and 4) OpR Applications and its Integration with other Disciplines. Explores integration of semantic, unstructured textual data, in Operational Risk Management. Provides novel techniques for combining qualitative and quantitative information to assess risks and design mitigation strategies. Presents a comprehensive treatment of «near-misses» data and incidents in Operational Risk Management. Looks at case studies in the financial and industrial sector. Discusses application of ontology engineering to model knowledge used in Operational Risk Management. Many real life examples are presented, mostly based on the MUSING project co-funded by the EU FP6 Information Society Technology Programme. It provides a unique multidisciplinary perspective on the important and evolving topic of Operational Risk Management. The book will be useful to operational risk practitioners, risk managers in banks, hospitals and industry looking for modern approaches to risk management that combine an analysis of structured and unstructured data. The book will also benefit academics interested in research in this field, looking for techniques developed in response to real world problems.
Essential insights on the various aspects of enterprise risk management If you want to understand enterprise risk management from some of the leading academics and practitioners of this exciting new methodology, Enterprise Risk Management is the book for you. Through in-depth insights into what practitioners of this evolving business practice are actually doing as well as anticipating what needs to be taught on the topic, John Fraser and Betty Simkins have sought out the leading experts in this field to clearly explain what enterprise risk management is and how you can teach, learn, and implement these leading practices within the context of your business activities. In this book, the authors take a broad view of ERM, or what is called a holistic approach to ERM. Enterprise Risk Management introduces you to the wide range of concepts and techniques for managing risk in a holistic way that correctly identifies risks and prioritizes the appropriate responses. This invaluable guide offers a broad overview of the different types of techniques: the role of the board, risk tolerances, risk profiles, risk workshops, and allocation of resources, while focusing on the principles that determine business success. This comprehensive resource also provides a thorough introduction to enterprise risk management as it relates to credit, market, and operational risk, as well as the evolving requirements of the rating agencies and their importance to the overall risk management in a corporate setting. Filled with helpful tables and charts, Enterprise Risk Management offers a wealth of knowledge on the drivers, the techniques, the benefits, as well as the pitfalls to avoid, in successfully implementing enterprise risk management. Discusses the history of risk management and more recently developed enterprise risk management practices and how you can prudently implement these techniques within the context of your underlying business activities Provides coverage of topics such as the role of the chief risk officer, the use of anonymous voting technology, and risk indicators and their role in risk management Explores the culture and practices of enterprise risk management without getting bogged down by the mathematics surrounding the more conventional approaches to financial risk management This informative guide will help you unlock the incredible potential of enterprise risk management, which has been described as a proxy for good management.
A global banking risk management guide geared toward the practitioner Financial Risk Management presents an in-depth look at banking risk on a global scale, including comprehensive examination of the U.S. Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, and the European Banking Authority stress tests. Written by the leaders of global banking risk products and management at SAS, this book provides the most up-to-date information and expert insight into real risk management. The discussion begins with an overview of methods for computing and managing a variety of risk, then moves into a review of the economic foundation of modern risk management and the growing importance of model risk management. Market risk, portfolio credit risk, counterparty credit risk, liquidity risk, profitability analysis, stress testing, and others are dissected and examined, arming you with the strategies you need to construct a robust risk management system. The book takes readers through a journey from basic market risk analysis to major recent advances in all financial risk disciplines seen in the banking industry. The quantitative methodologies are developed with ample business case discussions and examples illustrating how they are used in practice. Chapters devoted to firmwide risk and stress testing cross reference the different methodologies developed for the specific risk areas and explain how they work together at firmwide level. Since risk regulations have driven a lot of the recent practices, the book also relates to the current global regulations in the financial risk areas. Risk management is one of the fastest growing segments of the banking industry, fueled by banks' fundamental intermediary role in the global economy and the industry's profit-driven increase in risk-seeking behavior. This book is the product of the authors' experience in developing and implementing risk analytics in banks around the globe, giving you a comprehensive, quantitative-oriented risk management guide specifically for the practitioner. Compute and manage market, credit, asset, and liability risk Perform macroeconomic stress testing and act on the results Get up to date on regulatory practices and model risk management Examine the structure and construction of financial risk systems Delve into funds transfer pricing, profitability analysis, and more Quantitative capability is increasing with lightning speed, both methodologically and technologically. Risk professionals must keep pace with the changes, and exploit every tool at their disposal. Financial Risk Management is the practitioner's guide to anticipating, mitigating, and preventing risk in the modern banking industry.